2 Angels pitchers who will surpass their projections, 1 who will not

Big-ticket free agent acquisition Yusei Kikuchi will disappoint the Angels

2025 Steamer Projection: 31 games, 176.0 innings pitched, 3.74 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 3.1 fWAR

Expectations are high for the Japanese lefty who landed the highest contract the Halos have awarded to a free-agent starter in over a decade. With that type of cash comes expectations that he'll lead the staff. While the Steamer projection isn't exactly top-line ace material, it suggests that Kikuchi will be a durable and effective starter, worthy of a front-of-the-rotation role.

Here's the thing though, he's never really been that up to this point in his career, and it seems like a risky bet that he will suddenly become that as he approaches his 34th birthday this June. In fact, his projected 3.74 ERA would be the best mark of his career, and he has more seasons with an ERA over-5 (three years) than he does with an ERA under-4 (one year).

Kikuchi did have a strong second half last season, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 starts (60.0 innings pitched) after being traded to the Houston Astros. Still, Kikuchi owns a career 4.57 ERA last season, was worth -0.9 fWAR in 2022, and has long struggled with the long ball.

Despite spending half his career toiling in the pitcher-friendly confines in Seattle, he has posted a sky-high 1.57 HR/9. Pitchers in their mid-30s rarely unlock a new level of performance, and therefore Kikuchi is highly unlikely to beat his optimistic projections.

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