The long-rumored Yusei Kikuchi to the Los Angeles Angels talks have finally borne fruit. The Angels landed their man, bringing him in on a 3 year, $63 million deal. This is the largest deal the Angels have given a starting pitcher since giving C.J. Wilson 5 years, $77.5 million in 2011.
This is great business by Perry Minasian. Kikuchi is not in the same tier of starting pitcher as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, Jack Flaherty, or maybe even Sean Manaea. However, the value he can provide the Angels on $63 million (and no qualifying offer) vs. what the other guys will receive should not be underestimated. In terms of pitchers who throw hard and strike out batters, Kikuchi was one of the best last season. Of pitchers who threw 100 innings last season, his 95.6mph average fastball ranked 29th hardest and his 10.55 K/9 ranked 13th. The only pitchers ahead of him in K/9 who threw more innings were Dylan Cease, AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans, and NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale. The Angels are getting a discount for a pitcher who has shown he can be a bona fide ace.
Yusei Kikuchi is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and signing him is a turning point for the lowly Angels
What can Angels fans expect from the 33-year-old out of Japan? Well, Kikuchi is a power pitcher who sells out for swings and misses. It's a double-edged sword for Kikuchi because if he gets hit, he gets hit hard. His barrel%, average exit velocity, and hard-hit%s were all in the lower tier of starters last season. What is promising, though, is a lot of that hard contact occured in Toronto and not Houston.
Once Kikuchi landed in Houston he turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball, to the tune of 10 starts, 9 Astros wins in those 10 starts (he personally collected 5 wins), 60 innings pitched, a 2.70 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and a 0.93 WHIP. As Houston does, they tweaked Kikuchi's pitch usages and completely unlocked him. His curveball usage plummeted (especially to right-handed hitters), his four-seam usage ticked down, and he started ripping more sliders. His slider ended up being the pitch that generated so much swing and miss, and overall his breaking ball run value ranked in the 94th percentile of pitchers last season. His slider is a death-ball, and his ability to locate his four-seam up and slider down is second-to-none.
The best part about signing Kikuchi? They hurt the Astros! The Astros are the one organization who might have a worse farm system than the Angels, and they depleted it to sign Kikuchi...who they did not even use in the playoffs against Detroit! They sent out three promising prospects for a rental who they kept on the bench, despite Kikuchi looking dominant down the stretch.
The Angels splurging this offseason feels like a turning point for the organization. Arte Moreno opening his wallet like this feels like a breath of fresh air for Angels fans, and a place they have not gone in a while. They do not give out multi-year deals to pitchers, so many believed they would continue bargain shopping for rotation help. Well, they found the best of the mid-tier pitchers, and can pencil him in as their Opening Day starter.