Mike Trout’s chase for everything
Most At Risk: 3,000 hits, 600 (or even 700) home runs
Over the first half of Mike Trout’s career, he has already achieved what many players wish they could achieve in a lifetime. He has won three MVPs and seven Silver Slugger Awards, while smacking 285 home runs and accumulating 1,324 hits. At 28-years-old, it seems like he is just getting started.
But are there certain milestones that would be difficult for him to achieve if he lost an entire season within the prime age of his career?
The logical answer is, yes, of course. And the projections prove it out. According to Szymborki’s probabilities, a lost season would most impact Trout on his quest for 3,000 hits, which he would have a 36% chance of reaching if a season is played, versus only a 25% chance if the season is canceled.
Trout needs 1,676 more hits to reach the 3000 plateau. A tall task, even for him, considering he has been one of the best, if not the best, players in all of baseball over the past eight seasons, and he is still not halfway to the milestone.
The centerfielder signed a record-breaking extension with the Angels last March that will keep him playing until at least 2030, eleven more seasons, which might be just enough for him to reach 3,000, assuming each season is played.
Without the 2020 season, if Trout plays out his extension until he is 39-years-old, while averaging the same number of hits he has over the previous eight years (162), he would fall just short of 3,000 (with 2,944). Of course, at that point, he could sign another short-term contract and ultimately reach the magical number. But all of this assumes he can keep hitting the baseball like the best player in the game well past his prime years.
Besides 3,000 hits, a lost season also hurts Trouts chances to reach 600 home runs (58% if the 2020 season is played; 48% if it does not), and consequently the next big jump to 700 home runs (17% probability if 2020 is played; only 9% if not).
"Mike Trout donates food to New Jersey hospital workers fighting COVID-19"
There are more important things to consider about the current situation facing Major League Baseball from a public health standpoint. But if we focus on the distraction the game provides us on the field, a lost 2020 season could prevent some great players from reaching major milestones.