Alek Manoah’s strong start to spring is fun, but Angels fans should temper expectations

Here's a fun fact about Alek Manoah. When the former Toronto Blue Jay finished third in the AL Cy Young voting in 2022, the pitcher he finished directly ahead of in the voting was none other than Shohei Ohtani. The Los Angeles Angels aren't expecting that sort of performance from the now 28-year-old right-hander, but the hope is that he can bounce back and help stabilize the starting rotation.

On the surface, everything looks as if it's going according to plan. Manoah has logged five scoreless innings over his first two spring training appearances. We always need to take spring stats, especially those from the early going when the samples are tiny, with a grain of salt, but that's exactly what you'd want to see from the reclamation project.

But before you get too excited thinking that, at minimum, the Halos have found someone to anchor the No. 5 spot in the rotation, it's worth diving in a little bit deeper on how he's performed this spring. Spoiler alert: it's not all sunshine and rainbows.

The underlying numbers from Alek Manoah's first two spring training starts should have Angels fans tempering their expectations

Preventing runs is the name of the game, but whether or not it's sustainable is the ultimate question. Manoah has yet to let up an earned run, but it definitely appears that it is more due to luck than anything else.

So far, the former first-round pick has issued three walks while allowing four hits and recording just one strikeout. That's created a lot of traffic on the bases, and he's fortunate that none have come around to score.

There are some questions about his stuff as well. For some reason unbeknownst to modern civilization, the Angels did not have radar guns set up to measure velocity during spring bullpen sessions. That's bad for a variety of reasons, but it's especially made it hard to see if Manoah has fully regained his velocity following Tommy John surgery.

What we have seen in game action is that his fastball is averaging 92 miles per hour, approximately 1.5 miles per hour less than what he could muster the last time he pitched in the big leagues.

This all doesn't mean that it's time to panic and chalk Manoah up as a bust of a signing. He could easily go out and strikeout the next 10 batters he faces and change the entire narrative. However, when looking at this as an extension of what we've seen from him recently, it is cause for some concern.

Manoah looked like a budding ace in 2022, but before the elbow troubles began in 2024, the wheels were already falling off. His 2023 campaign saw him struggle to a 5.87 ERA, and while he dealt with knee, back, and quad injuries, no structural damage was found.

With that as context, it's easy to see that it wasn't solely the elbow that made him a reclamation project. As for the spring walks, he's averaging 5.40 BB/9 so far, which isn't far off from the 5.35 mark he put up while working his way back over 38 2/3 innings in the minors last season, nor is it that drastically different from the 6.08 BB/9 he allowed in 2023.

Again, those command issues predate the torn UCL and indicate a deeper reason for his struggles. There's still a chance this gamble works out, and fans should root for him to succeed, but the chances of him being a productive member of the rotation aren't especially great, unless something drastically changes over the rest of spring training.