Angels' playoff odds raise tough questions before Opening Day even arrives

The Los Angeles Angels, as it turns out, went into the offseason with one goal: save as much money as possible while trying to claim contention. The Arte Moreno game plan has become a staple throughout Perry Minasian’s tenure in Anaheim leading the front office, but it is safe to say after the latest postseason projections that no one is being fooled by this Angels team. 

The Angels spent all of 2025 teetering between buying and selling leading up to the trade deadline. They soft bought, adding two veteran relievers to stabilize the bullpen and a former Yankees prospect in Oswald Peraza to come off the bench as a defensive specialist. The team immediately fell out of the playoff picture, and the offseason brought tough questions. They fooled themselves into thinking they might be good enough, and did the same in the offseason. Despite money saving moves made, the team did not make any major upgrades. And now, it appears that the team has hit a new low. 

Angels’ 2026 playoff odds to start should force tough conversations

FanGraphs released their postseason projections, and the Angels are given a dismal outlook. The team is given a 5.7 percent chance of making the playoffs (and projecting just 68 wins), the lowest in the entire American League West. Yes, the Athletics have gone from joke of the league to having a better shot at October baseball than Mike Trout and the Angels. To make matters worse, the only team with a lower chance in the AL is the White Sox. 

Across all of MLB, the Angels have the fourth lowest odds. The Rockies and Nationals join the White Sox sitting under the Angels. The difference between those clubs and the Halos are that they are all actively tanking and rebuilding, while Moreno has the Angels in baseball purgatory - noncommittal to both a true rebuild and to spending enough to give the team a fighting chance. 

This is going to open up difficult conversations, or at least it should. The Angels have a number of veterans that could be traded for real assets. Even names like Jo Adell and Reid Detmers could be on the trading block come July. And if they keep kicking the can down the road, trading stars like Jose Soriano and Zach Neto are going to be the only options to truly kickstart a rebuild. 

As much as fans want to believe in this Angels team, they are inarguably worse than last season. Their offense has lost the production of Taylor Ward without finding a replacement anywhere (unless Josh Lowe goes back to his 2023 production). Their rotation should be better, but that is not exactly a staggering accomplishment considering they had to replace the trio of Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, and Jack Kochanowicz.

All in all, that 5.7 percent chance of making the playoffs represents something much larger for the Angels - it shows just how far off this team has fallen and how far they have to go before having an actual claim of contending for a playoff spot.