Angels should look to buy low on former NL Cy Young winner at the trade deadline

It's still very unclear how good the 2025 Los Angeles Angels are, and whether or not they'll be buyers or sellers at the July 31 trade deadline. When the club opened the season on a hot streak, it was easy to envision them being surprise contenders. When they came crashing down to earth, fire sales were predicted. Tides continue to shift through their recent eight-game winning streak and subsequent three-game losing skid.

Instead of purely looking through the lens of whether or not the team should buy or sell at the deadline, perhaps it makes more sense to take a nuanced approach. The Halos' goal in 2025 is to play competitive baseball, which means showing up, playing hard, and putting themselves in positions to win ball games, even if, at the end, superior talent wins out.

Most importantly, the growth and development of their young core and positioning themselves to rise to true contender status as early as 2026 is imperative.

With the AL West looking much weaker and more open than in years past, it makes sense for the Angels to hunt for value, whether that means trading a veteran for talent that can better help in the future, or conversely, adding talent that can help now and down the line.

One struggling veteran hurler with a Cy Young award in his not-so-distant past just paid a visit to the Big A, and while he didn't impress, he might be just the type of gamble the Angels should take at the deadline.

The Angels would be wise to buy low on Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara

It wasn't that long ago that Sandy Alcantara was emerging as one of the top young arms in the game. As a 25-year-old in 2021, he posted a 3.19 ERA in 205.2 innings, averaging 98.1 miles per hour on his fastball along the way.

In 2022, Alcantara reached a new stratosphere. He pitched an eye-popping 228.2 innings while lowering his ERA by nearly a full run, down to 2.28, taking home the Cy Young trophy. 2023 was a clear step back, and the Dominican-born righthander posted a respectable, though not ace-like, 4.14 ERA before succumbing to an elbow injury.

That elbow injury led to Tommy John surgery that cost Alcantara his 2024 season, and his return to the mound in 2025 was one of the most anticipated storylines during the leadup to the season. Trade rumors swirled around the ace, as the miserly Marlins are always looking to shed salary. They ended up dealing Alcantara's former teammate, Jesus Luzardo, but decided to hold on to Alcantara, hoping for an even bigger return at the deadline.

Alcantara made the start against the Angels on Friday, May 23, allowing five hits and five earned runs over 5.1 innings in a microcosm of how his season has unfolded.

Now 29 years old, the once-promising former Cy Young winner is struggling mightily, averaging less than five innings per start and posting an 8.04 ERA.

So why would the Angels want the struggling starter? It's all about the upside play. Alcantara signed an extension back in 2022, and is now making $17.3 million which accounts for roughly a quarter of Miami's $67.9 million payroll and roughly four times as much as their next highest paid player, Jesus Sanchez who makes just $4.5 million.

Despite his struggles, Alcantara's stuff is still there. Though it's a tick below his peak, his average fastball velocity of 97.6 miles per hour is still more than enough to get hitters out. Rather than stuff it has been command that has held the standout starter back.

Alcantara's walk rate has ballooned from his career average of 7.6% to 11.6% in 2025. Not only that, he's making more mistakes in the strike zone that result in long balls, with a HR/9 of 1.53 in 2025, well above his career mark of 0.94.

Command is often the last thing to return for a pitcher after Tommy John surgery, and it's encouraging that his velocity is still mostly intact. As the season unfolds, he'll likely get stronger as he works his way back.

For contenders who had been sniffing around Alcantara in the offseason, they likely won't be interested in acquiring him with the hopes that he'll figure it out down the stretch. However, for a team like the Angels, Alcantara could be a worthy dice through for 2025 and beyond.

The Marlins don't have to trade Alcantara now. He's under contract through 2026 and has a $21 million club option for 2027. However, that franchise is so averse to spending money, it's hard to imagine they'll continue to carry his salary on their books, especially with the risk that, if he doesn't turn it around, his entire value will turn to dust.

For the Angels, Alcantara represents the chance to acquire a pitcher that has legitimate ace upside, something they've lacked forever, and his luxury tax figure is a much more reasonable $11.2 million.

If the club were to acquire him, they could be patient with him and see if he returns to form down the stretch in 2025. Then, in 2026, they could wind up with a true ace to anchor the rotation as well as a valuable trade chip should they fall out of the race.

The package to acquire him wouldn't be steep given his performance this season, which gives the Angels the opportunity to acquire a potential frontline starter without cleaning out their already barren farm system. If he becomes the ace he once was, he'll do so at a well-below-market rate, even if the Angels pick up his 2027 option.

On the flip side, should Alcantara return to form but the rest of the roster lacks, the Angels would have the opportunity to flip him for a haul at the 2026 deadline.

The risk is that Alcantara doesn't get it together and the Angels wind up with a failing starter on an unmovable contract. Given the state of the team's farm system, reticence to commit $200 million to an ace on the free-agent market, and a clear need for a top-of-the-rotation arm, it seems like a risk they should be willing to take.

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