When Jorge Soler was traded to the Angels last Halloween, it looked as if the team was addressing the ghoulish lack of pop in the middle of their lineup. Most have penciled him in as the team's presumptive clean-up hitter in 2025, giving Mike Trout some much-needed protection in the lineup.
However, is that really the best place for Soler to bat in the order? Conventional wisdom would say so. In the past, leadoff hitters were almost exclusively speedy, high-contact, high-batting-average guys. The idea was to set the table for the big boppers in the heart of the order by hitting singles and stealing bases. Over time, this formula began to change. Teams realized that on-base percentage was more important than batting average and these speedy singles merchants got phased out in favor of guys who could get on base at a higher clip.
We're now arriving at a point where teams are considering even more factors when optimizing lineup construction. The most important part of formulating lineups isn't focusing on specific traits or roles, but rather ensuring that more opportunities are given to the best overall hitters. Relatively basic research shows that the higher a hitter bats in the order, the more plate appearances he receives over a 162-game season.
Average plate appearances per 162 games across MLB by batting order position in 2023:
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1 - 750.42
2 - 733.11
3 - 714.13
4 - 698.04
5 - 681.07
6 - 664.09
7 - 645.56
8 - 628.47
9 - 608.05
Best hitter should hit the most. Batting a guy third or fourth is predicated on the guys… https://t.co/wog4IW5V1N
There's another factor to consider -- the human element of the game. Players do not perform exactly the same in each role or position in the lineup, and while the reasons for that are hard to quantify, the results are not. It has more to do with a player's comfort level, knowing that he will show up the field each day knowing where he will be in the batting order.
Angels DH Jorge Soler hits best out of the leadoff spot
The Locked On Angels podcast recently covered which position in the batting order Soler hits best using data from 2024. The cliff notes are that while Soler hit a solid .241/.338/.442 with a 119 wRC+ overall last season, he posted a .276/.386/.513 line and a 152 wRC+ hitting first in the batting order.
His 2024 sample was relatively small, however, at just 184 plate appearances. That said, over his career, he owns a .258/.368/.494 slash line and a 136wRC+ in a slightly more robust sample of 368 plate appearances. That performance is significantly better than his career line of .243/.331/.464 with a 113 wRC+.
A few more splits to take note of: Soler has a career 118 wRC+ with the bases empty, a 106 wRC+ with men on base, and a112 wRC+ with runners in scoring position. His ISO is the highest with the bases empty at .239 versus .198 with runners on base and .211 with men in scoring position. As a leadoff man, the Angels would provide him at least one guaranteed opportunity to hit with the bases empty at the start of games, and his increased power production in these scenarios could result in more homers to start games.
Should the Angels eschew conventional wisdom and have their DH lead off, they may find that they are able to unlock significantly more value from a player who is already a tremendous upgrade for them. The sample size, even when considering his career numbers is small, but the experiment is well worth it if it allows for a good hitter (113 wRC+) to transform himself into a great hitter (136 wRC+ career leading off) by batting him first in the lineup.