Former Angels' 2007 campaign provides intriguing comp for Nolan Schanuel's floor

The Angels have one of the most intriguing, yet polarizing young talents on their roster in the form of a soon-to-be 23-year-old Nolan Schanuel. First base is normally a position reserved for mashers with monster power, and Schanuel is anything but that at this point in his career. While that has raised some concerns, it's important to note that the Angels' first round pick in 2023 fast-tracked his way through the minors based on his talents and is now entering his second full big-league season at an age where most prospects haven't yet had their first cup of coffee.

While a contact and on-base-driven approach as a first baseman appears unusual, the Halos can look to their past to find a similar player whose 2007 season could serve as a floor for what Schanuel can become.

Casey Kotchman's 2007 performance is a baseline for what the Angels hope Nolan Schanuel's floor can be

Back in 2007, the Angels awarded first base to a power-deprived 24-year-old Casey Kotchman and got surprisingly good results. Kotchman only squeaked out 11 home runs, but his .296/.372/.467 line was good for a 123 wRC+. While one could believe that Kotchman serves instead as a cautionary tale, his heights with the Angels show that a low-power, high-on-base first baseman can work. The 2007 version of Kotchman had many traits that make Schanuel intriguing, and if Schanuel continues to develop his game, that performance could be his floor.

Both players posted relatively high walk rates and low strikeout rates for their respective eras. Kotchman walked 10.4% of the time in 2007 while only recording a K% of just 8.5%. Schanuel's 2024 saw him post a BB% of 11.2% and a K% of 17.0%. Considering the change in pitching philosophy over the last 15-plus years, Schanuel's rate of drawing walks while limiting strikeouts is impressive. Kotchman excelled mainly due to his bat-to-ball skills. In 2007, he posted an 87.4% contact rate. Schanuel's 2024 rate wasn't too far off at 86.8%. However, the differences in contact once the bat meets the ball show that Schanuel has a bit more upside. While Kotchman hit the ball a bit harder on average it was mostly on the ground, while Schanuel was better at hitting line drives and avoiding soft contact. Right now, those line drives are going for singles, but with a little work, he could consistently drive those balls into the gaps for doubles.

Schanuel entered last season working on improving his power and defense. One could argue his .362 slugging and -5 OAA show he didn't succeed in those preseason goals. However, given his age and lack of professional baseball experience, it makes sense to have some patience with him.

Remembering 2007 Casey Kotchman, one can see that Schanuel, as he stands currently, isn't that far off from the former Angel who posted a 2.7 fWAR season. With a few tweaks, it's not hard to envision Schanuel performing at that level. As the contact rates show though, there's the potential for a significant amount more with Schanuel, and he could bring value well beyond that level, even if he never becomes a home run hitter.

Kotchman's 2007 is the floor for a fully developed Schanuel, and that is certainly not a bad thing for the Halos.

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