Frustratingly inconsistent Angels outfielder's long-awaited breakout is finally here

It feels like an eternity that the LA Angels have been waiting for a definitive answer to the Jo Adell conundrum. Once the No. 6 overall prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB.com. Adell has frustrated fans and confounded the organization with his inconsistencies and injuries over the past five-plus seasons.

You'd be forgiven if you thought the former first-rounder from 2017 was much older. Adell turned 26 at the beginning of the season, for just how long he's been on the radar. Yet, as of June 15, Adell has played just 371 games, roughly two seasons' worth of baseball, in his career so far, and doesn't hit free agency until after the 2027 season.

Still, Adell entered the season on thin ice, his long-term status with the Angels looking murky and the pressure on him to finally perform or face the reality of looking for work elsewhere. Prior to this season, Adell had never posted a wRC+ above 90, and his adventures in the outfield made him a further negative, producing -1.1 fWAR from his arrival in 2020 through the end of the 2024 season.

A brutal spring training that was allegedly the byproduct of yet another round of tweaks and adjustments to tap into his incredible athleticism and immense raw power didn't bring about the optimism that the Halos hoped for.

Furthermore, Adell was ice cold the first month of the season, batting just .190/236/.310 by the end of April. The writing was on the wall. We could all finally put the Adell question to bed and certify him as a bust. Then May happened.

Jo Adell is finally giving the Angels reason to believe

After that horrendous stretch to start the year, Adell went on to hit .239/.329/.507 in May with five home runs. He's gotten hot for stretches before, especially with his power stroke, but he's taken another leap in June.

Through 13 games this month, Adell has looked like a star in the batter's box, posting a .279/.367/.698 line. His six homers already this month put him in a first-place tie with sluggers Pete Alonso and Eugenio Suarez.

On the year, Adell's full line is now .229/.299/.464, which is good for a .333 wOBA. There's more to the story, however, and reason to believe that Adell has actually been better than that overall line would indicate.

Blessed with exceptional strength and athleticism, Adell has always had top-tier bat speed. This year is no exception, with him ranking in the 99th percentile in that category. The difference now is that he's regularly connecting with the ball and making solid contact.

This trend began last season when Adell posted a barrel rate of 11.7%, a 79th percentile result, and the first time in his career he achieved a rate over 9.9%. This season, he's barreling the ball with even greater frequency, coming in at an elite 14.2% clip.

His increased ability to get the sweet spot of the bat to the ball has led to more solid and powerful contact. Adell's infield fly ball rate has dropped from his career average of 13.9% all the way down to 8.6%.

Higher quality contact means his expected batting average this season is .273, and the regular hard contact he makes gives him an elite expected slugging percentage of .548, ranking in the 94th percentile. All told, his xwOBA comes in at .379, which is in the 88th percentile.

Adell still has some kinks to work out. Plate discipline has never been his strong suit, and his 5.4% walk rate on the year leaves something to be desired. He'll likely always have some swing-and-miss in his game as well, and his adventures in the outfield have left fans scratching their heads at times.

Once projected as a true five-tool player who many envisioned one day taking the mantle from Mike Trout as the face of the franchise ahead of his debut, Adell may never live up to that promise. But what he is showing is that he can be a well above average hitter based on his ability to be a power threat that regularly punishes baseballs.

That has a ton of value, and if this is truly who Adell is, the Angels may finally have their answer, and it is a satisfying one.

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