Has the Angels' early offseason aggression come back to bite them?

The Angels were in attack mode early this offseason. On Halloween they kicked things off by trading for Jorge Soler, acquiring him for virtually nothing. On November 6th they signed Kyle Hendricks, quickly following that up with the signings of Travis d'Arnaud (Nov. 12th) and Kevin Newman (Nov, 14th) before ostensibly putting a bow on everything by signing Yusei Kikuchi on November 25th. They then didn't sign another major-league free agent until inking a one-year $5 million deal with Yoán Moncada on February 6th.

The Angels are a better team today than the dreadful 2024 version that finished with a franchise-worst 63-99 record, but how much better are they really? Polarizing owner Arte Moreno promised a return to contention in 2025 and the increase in payroll necessary to achieve that goal while still staying under the $241 million luxury tax threshold.

Kikuchi and Soler have the potential to be significant upgrades. Moncada fills a need in a cheap way, though his health and productivity remain to be seen. Meanwhile d'Arnaud, Newman, and Hendricks are all more or less depth additions.

The early offseason activity held the Angels back from pursuing additional upgrades

The Angels still have money to spend with roughly $30 million to go before reaching the luxury tax threshold. They still have many needs and places on the roster that could use upgrades. However, due to the financial commitments they've already laid out, they've played conservatively and missed out on targets that could have better satisfied their needs.

It's clear that the team has wanted to spread that remaining $30 million around as much as possible, however, the way they played the market hasn't been in tune with how free agency has worked for some time. In years past, the early bird got the worm, however, in today's free agency sometimes bargains can be found by waiting.

Take Kikuchi for example. His three-year $63 million contract comes with an average annual value of $21.2 million, which is the number used for luxury tax purposes. Jack Flaherty signed much later in the offseason, and while his two-year $35 million contract comes with about $25 million upfront, its $17.5 million average annual value is what counts towards the luxury tax. Essentially, the Angels could've waited and signed Flaherty, Hendricks, and Newman for the same tax hit they are paying just to have Kikuchi.

Taking it a step further, while neither are true aces it's hard to make the case that Kikuchi and his 4.57 career ERA is a better pitcher than Flaherty and his 3.63 career mark. Furthermore, the Angels could have really used both, and if they had more patience with Kikuchi they might have been able to nab both players at lower numbers overall.

The difference in contract structure between Flaherty and Kikuchi brings up another point against the Angels' strategy, lack of creativity. Teams have been using signing bonuses, options, and deferred money to manipulate luxury tax numbers, while the Angels have been reluctant to do so. Sometimes that means paying more real dollars up front which means more immediately coming out of Arte Moreno's pocket, in order to save luxury tax costs down the road. In the Halos' case, it seems that Arte is reluctant to put his money where his mouth is.

Furthermore, because the Angels tied up a significant amount of money early on yet still have so many holes to fill, they've made non-competitive offers to players who could have served as real upgrades, whiffing in the process.

All of this is a recipe for the team going into the season with money left in the budget and holes left in the roster, which could have been avoided with some patience and creativity. Had the Angels waited on at least some of these moves, they could have gotten the same players at lower figures later in the process while adding more to better compete in 2025.

Instead, we'll likely see a team that didn't do enough hoping that internal improvements will carry them through all while keeping the money in their pocket.

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