If the Angels keep Grayson Rodriguez, it is because they are betting on one particular trait

Grayson Rodriguez is in a tough spot with the Los Angeles Angels. On the one hand, the club gave up a prime trade chip in Taylor Ward to acquire him, envisioning him as a controllable front-of-the-rotation starter, which had been something the club had lacked for ages.

However, Rodriguez has failed to live up to anything even remotely resembling that promise in 2026. He's succumbed to injuries, as has been the case for much of his career. Normally, a team would stick by a struggling young player they spent so much to acquire, but the regime that pulled the trigger on that trade is no longer here.

The rest of the Angels' young starters have taken off, and for a minute, it seemed that Rodriguez was along for the ride with the rest of the unit. The 26-year-old posted a 2.93 ERA over 27 2/3 August innings, taking full advantage of the fact that Los Angeles opted to run a six-man rotation once Yusei Kikuchi returned from the IL.

Any risk of Rodriguez losing his rotation spot as the season winds to a close was eliminated when George Klassen hit the IL on August 30, but as the calendar has flipped to September, the August optimism has deflated as he's posted a 6.46 ERA so far this month.

It might seem as if the wise move would be the just write the right-hander off and non-tender him this offseason, but his elite skill, a 96th percentile at 7.2 feet, makes it seem like he might be fixable with a few key tweaks.

The Angels should give Grayson Rodriguez one last opportunity to build around his elite extension

Extension is important for a pitcher primarily because it makes his fastball appear that much faster. Theoretically, then, Rodriguez should have a dominant four-seamer because he also ranks in the 78th percentile with a 96.2 miles per hour average fastball velocity.

However, that hasn't been the case. The former Baltimore Oriole's heater has been crushed, posting a run value of -11 and allowing a 54.5% hard-hit rate. The prime culprit for this has been Rodriguez's command.

Despite an increase in zone rate with his fastball, jumping from 55.5% in 2024 to 59.9% in 2026, Rodriguez's walk rate has risen substantially from 7.3% to 9.7%. The reason for the increase in walks is that all of his secondaries, his changeup, curveball, and slider, are landing in the zone with much less frequency.

That has created a double-edged sword scenario where he's pitching from behind more often, leading to more fastballs in the heart of the plate. As a result, his whiff rate on heaters has fallen from 27% to 16.4%, while his zone contact rate has skyrocketed from 81.7% to 88.3%, and his HR/9 has jumped from 1.16 to 1.45.

Essentially, batters know that if they lay off the soft stuff, one of two things will happen. Either Rodriguez will eventually issue them a free pass, or he'll groove a fastball that they can hit a long way.

The solution lies in the secondaries. We've seen Rodriguez's changeup play nicely off the fastball in the past, with a run value of five and a .161 batting average against in 2024. Even this year, it hasn't been the biggest problem, with a neutral run value of zero and a .230 average.

What he truly needs to do is establish one of his breaking pitches, either the curveball or the slider, as an offering that he can throw both for strikes and as a chase pitch. If he can do that, the extension will make the fastball play up because hitters can no longer sit on it, which will generate more whiffs and more weak contact on the heater as a result.

Developing a quality breaking ball is easier said than done, but the Angels gave up Taylor Ward for him, so it's worth giving it another go. Rodriguez is under team control through 2029, and there's no guarantee that Ryan Johnson or George Klassen will prove to be viable rotation options in 2027. If it works, they'll have a cost-controlled replacement for Yusei Kikuchi when the veteran lefty's contract expires ahead of the 2028 campaign.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow