Is a long-awaited breakout on the horizon for former Angels' top prospect?

On the surface, Angels centerfielder Jo Adell is doing what he's done his entire career. He'll tantalize you with flashes, like hitting two homers in the same inning against Tampa, but he'll also disappoint, like putting up a strikeout hat trick against Houston.

Throw in an injury scare earlier in the season, and you've gotten the full Jo Adell experience in just a few short weeks to kick off the 2025 campaign. The numbers on the year for the much maligned former top prospect through 13 games: .200/.265/.356, which is good for an OPS+ of 79. For his career, the performance has been eerily similar: .211/.268/.380, which has been worth, you guessed it, a 79 OPS+.

Once ranked as the no. 3 prospect in all of baseball, Adell has never found his footing. Despite playing parts of five big league seasons prior to 2025, he never managed more than 285 plate appearances in a single season before last year. The reasons for that are varied -- injuries and inconsistency have plagued him and messed with his ability to get regular playing time. One could argue that COVID-19 cancelling the 2020 minor league season forced the Halos to bring him up too early, thus stunting his development.

On the other hand, you can't say that Adell hasn't turned over every stone in hopes of finding success. He made several adjustments last season, which led to a nearly two-month stretch where it looked like he found it, batting .248/.320/.451 in a 125-plate-appearance sample. Now he's also toying with a torpedo bat, something that's become all the rage early on in the 2025 season.

The underlying metrics say there's a Jo Adell breakout waiting to be unleashed

There's no denying that Jo Adell is one of the most important Angels this season, as the team looks to develop its young core and play competitive baseball in the hopes of building an eventual contender. There's also no denying that time is running out on the Jo Adell experiment, as the 26-year-old needs to prove whether or not he is part of the team's young core moving forward.

One tool that Adell has always had is elite bat speed. In 2024, his 76.7 miles per hour average bat speed ranked in the 98th percentile. So far in 2025, through 13 games, his bat speed is still there, ranking in the 90th percentile. When he makes contact, Adell typically hits the ball hard. His 44.7% hard hit rate per StatCast last year was in the 71st percentile.

Still, a year ago, the quality of Adell's contact combined with his swing-and-miss tendencies didn't amount to much in terms of getting hits, actual or otherwise, as his expected batting average was just .224, good for just the 14th percentile. In 2025, however, his xBA is .281. That number has been driven by a significantly higher average exit velocity, which has risen from 89.8 miles per hour to 93.3 miles per hour, good for the 89th percentile in all of baseball.

Adelll ranked in the 79th percentile in barrels last year, and is doing the same thing this season, but his hard hit rate has now skyrocketed sitting at 56.7%, which is in the 93rd percentile. His xSLG is soaring as well, rising from .418 last season to .519 this year.

Even his most troublesome tendencies have seen some improvement. Adell has always had a lot of swing-and-miss to his game, but his whiff rate has improved from the 19th percentile to the 36th percentile while his K-rate has decreased, going from the 15th percentile to the 30th percentile.

If he continues to tap into his power while limiting his swing-and-miss tendencies and improving his plate discipline, he can be a powerful bat. He might not hit for a sparkly average or have a pristine on-base percentage, and he still may strike out more than you'd like, but if he can put it together the way the metrics suggest, he could be a .250 hitter with considerable pop while playing a decent centerfield. That has a lot of value.

Of course, as is always the case with Adell, we'll need to see it over a longer period of time. 2025 is a make-or-break season for him, but despite some disappointing early returns, it's too soon to write him off.

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