One stat shows the Angels aren’t as far from AL West contention as they seem

Things may seem fairly bleak for the Los Angeles Angels right now. They have one of the worst records in baseball and given the fact they traded away some of their better players at the deadline, they may not be competitive for several years as they attempt something of a mini-rebuild.

Things aren’t quite as dark when one remembers that they play in the American League West, arguably the worst division in MLB. The Houston Astros currently lead the division with a .500 record. Not only that, but every team has a terrible run differential. In fact, the Astros, Texas Rangers, and Seattle Mariners are all tied with a -46 run differential right now.

The Angels aren’t all that far behind, as they have a -70 run differential on the year which shows that they may not have to catch up all that much if they want to contend in the AL West in the next few years.

Of course, run differential isn’t everything. It can often be misleading but usually it’s a pretty good indicator of whether a team is over-performing or underperforming. If you go off expected wins and losses based on each team’s run differential, the Angels would have a record of 57-71 and would be just three games back of the 60-68 Astros.

Angels could catch lighning in a bottle next year

With such a weak division, anything can happen. Maybe the Angels feel reinvigorated next year with a new manager and build some momentum early in the year. It’s not entirely crazy to think they could at least be in the hunt in their division especially if next year is a repeat of 2026.

Interim GM John Mozeliak, who should assume a full-time role at some point, knows how to build a winner. He did it before with the St. Louis Cardinals so that sort of confidence from a guy who knows what winning baseball looks like has a tendency to trickle down in an organization.

Obviously the talent on the field matters and the Angels clearly need to get better players, but they may not be as far off as people think. Any team can catch lightning in a bottle and have a good year so if the Angels can do that next year don’t be shocked if they make a little bit on noise in a weak AL West.

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