Yusei Kikuchi’s rough start to 2026 isn’t as bad as it looks, but there are real red flags

When the Los Angeles Angels signed Yusei Kikuchi, it felt like a significant shift in organizational philosophy. The Angels under owner Arte Moreno had famously eschewed adding real pitching talent in years past. By signing Kikuchi, who was coming off a very promising stretch with the Astros, it seemed like general manager Perry Minasian was finally starting to get some more freedom to make the moves he wanted to make.

The financial freedom certainly didn't last as Moreno cut payroll yet again for this season, but Kikuchi has remained a solid addition. Across 33 starts in 2025, Kikuchi gave the Angels 178.1 innings with a 3.99 ERA and 4.23 FIP. Certainly not world-beating numbers, but very solid. Unfortunately, the start of his 2026 has not gone nearly as well, and it is difficult to parse why.

One of the pieces of noise in this small data sample from 2026 that is causing some difficulty is luck playing an outsized factor. There are several reasons to suggest that Kikuchi's surface-level numbers aren't as bad as they initially look. However, some red flags are at least some cause for concern.

Yusei Kikuchi has been better than his numbers suggest, but the Angels still need to fix a couple of troubling trends

The issue with taking Kikuchi's numbers at face value through three starts so far is two-fold. One, the sample is so small that a pair of subpar outings against the Cubs and Braves will have a more significant impact on his overall line. There is also the issue that while his 6.75 ERA looks ugly, his FIP is just 3.08, which heavily implies that he has been the victim of both rotten batted ball luck as well as some truly suspect defense behind him. The latter certainly passes the eye test so far in 2026.

However, that doesn't mean one should simply dismiss these early-season results completely. One metric that can result in increased batted ball "bad luck" is exactly how much hard contact hitters are making. Ground balls are usually great, but they gain an added level of difficulty and danger when they are coming off the bat at 95+ mph. As he has often been in recent years, Kikuchi ranks well below average in terms of average exit velocity against him as well as hard hit % this season, with his chase rate also being problematic.

Kikuchi has made that profile work in the past thanks to his elite extension, diverse pitch arsenal, and ability to miss bats. However, that can only get a guy so far when they are pounding the strike zone, and hitters are getting good swings. The odds are good that Kikuchi will get back on track and be a very solid starter the rest of the way, but it would be a lot easier if he could figure out a way to take some of the sting out of some of these batted balls and give the defenders behind him a fighting chance.

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