Angels must avoid the Luis Robert Jr. trap Orioles failed to recognize

In terms of raw talent, there are few players who can match what Luis Robert Jr. to the table. The Los Angeles Angels know this well; over 32 career games, the outfielder has torched the Halos to the tune of a .305 batting average and .819 OPS. It was also just three years ago that he hit 38 home runs and stolen 20 bases en route to 5.0 fWAR.

However, injuries have completely removed the shine from his profile, as he's played in just 271 games (out of a possible 486) over the past three seasons. His wRC+ has been below average in each of those campaigns, and all of those ailments appear to have taken their toll on his defense and baserunning.

Thus, it's no surprise that the Baltimore Orioles declined his $20 million option for 2027. Robert is now a free agent for the first time in his career, and he's still only 29 years old. There's a lot of upside laden in his bat and glove, but the Angels may not be the right team to try and coax it out of him.

Angels can't repeat Justin Upton mistake with Luis Robert Jr.

Robert was previously a trade target of the Angels back when his value was still relatively high as a member of the White Sox, though nothing ever quite got across the finish line. Perhaps that's for the best, because since the start of 2025, he's been paid $35 million while producing 1.8 fWAR. For reference, Wade Meckler accrued 2.0 fWAR this year on a pre-arb salary.

And, ultimately, that's why it's best to avoid him this offseason. I have no doubt that a healthy Robert would likely outproduce Meckler and Jose Siri in 2027, and he could probably even give a 35-year-old Mike Trout a run for his money. But Robert has played in more than 110 games once in his career, back when he was a 25-year-old. Even at a modest level of investment -- MLB Trade Rumors predicts his next contract will be for $14 million over one year -- it's hard to count on him to actually play enough to fully realize his potential.

Signing Robert would be pretty similar to the Justin Upton gambit from a decade ago, when the Angels traded for (and later extended) the four-time All-Star as he was nearing his 30th birthday. Upton was both far more accomplished and healthier than Robert is now, and yet his deal still aged rather poorly (he was worth -2.3 bWAR over his final three seasons with the team).

You could argue that signing Robert is the kind of short-term, high-upside swing the Angels need to be taking right now, but the organization needs to be targetting players who bring a lot more certainty to the table than he does.

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