The Angels have vowed to improve upon their dismal 63-99 campaign, however, despite a flurry of activity early in the offseason, the team seems to be banking on internal improvements driving their return to contention.
On the pitching side of things, there have been two notable additions. Yusei Kikuchi signed a three-year $63 million dollar deal, while 35-year-old Kyle Hendricks was brought in on a one-year $2.5 million contract.
Kikuchi should provide some stability and he is certainly an upgrade over the departing Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval, though they're banking on the 2.70 ERA Astros-version of Kikuchi arriving in LA versus the 4.75 ERA model that began last season in Toronto. Hendricks is a low-cost shot in the dark who was once a well-regarded starter but is coming off a season in which he posted a putrid 5.92 ERA.
Pitching has been a problem for the Angels for what seems like forever, and as long as this chronic issue plagues the team they will struggle to compete. Unless another addition is made, one young arm loaded with potential will feel the weight of the expectations fall on his shoulders.
Why are the Angels putting all their eggs in the Jose Soriano basket?
Jose Soriano, 26, has had a long and winding journey to the big leagues. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old international free agent and given a paltry signing bonus of just $70,000 expectations weren't high for the young pitcher.
Injuries almost derailed his career before it got started, and he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2020 leading to the Halos leaving him unprotected during the Rule 5 Draft. He was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates which temporarily ended his Angels tenure until he hit another setback in his rehab leading to his return to Los Angeles.
It would be a few more years until he'd make his Major League debut, which came in 2023 pitching out of the bullpen logging 42 innings over 38 games while pitching to the tune of a 3.64 ERA. In 2024, he worked primarily as a starter with 20 of his 22 appearances coming in that role while throwing 113 total innings and posting a 3.42 ERA.
While those two seasons are relatively small sample sizes, Soriano has been productive and has elite tools that lead some to believe he has ace potential. Last season he generated ground balls at an astonishingly high clip, 60.1% (which was the 97th percentile) according to Statcast data, largely on the strength of his power sinker that averaged 97.7 miles per hour.
That sinker was his bread-and-butter, he threw it 46.1% of the time last season, though he also has a knuckle-curve and four-seam fastball in his arsenal along with occasionally mixing in a splitter and a slider.
While that repertoire sounds downright filthy on paper, in practice he was largely a pitch-to-contact hurler. He only averaged 7.73 K/9 last season, and his chase rate (29.3%) was only slightly above average ranking in the 56th percentile, while his whiff rate (23.7%) was well below average in the 35th percentile.
Unfortunately, Soriano walks a few too many batters (3.58 BB/9 in 2024) to support his low strikeout rate, so while he does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard (0.64 HR/9 in 2024) he can be beaten in a death by one thousand papercuts manner, with walks and seeing-eye singles causing a big inning here and there.
The biggest concern with Soriano, however, is health and durability. He only managed 25.2 innings pitched in the second half last year as he dealt with arm fatigue resulting in an IL-stint in August which ended his season prematurely. Factor in his previous record of arm issues and there's legitimate concern as to whether or not he can hold up for a full season of a starter's workload.
And herein lies the issue with the Angels' approach. Soriano is immensely talented, however relying on him to realize his potential and stay healthy in order to lead the rotation is an incredibly risky proposition. There's certainly a world where everything breaks right and he becomes a bonafide ace, but there are several alternative scenarios that bring forth varying degrees of success and failure.
For a team that has been so inept at putting together a competent rotation for many years, it's an unnecessary gamble. The club is operating as if its only option is Soriano or bust while in reality, they could continue to foster the youngster's development while adding certainty at the top of the rotation. That would require spending money, however, which despite this offseason's initial flurry, seems to be something Arte Moreno and company are unwilling to do.
There's still some time left before opening day, but as currently constructed, the Halos are relying almost solely on Soriano and many other dice rolls to make their starting rotation productive and lead them back to contention. This simply isn't the smart move.