With 400 home runs out of the way for Mike Trout, how likely is #500 for Angels DH?

The moment Angels fans and baseball fans across the country have been waiting for finally came on Saturday night, as Mike Trout hit his 400th home run against the Colorado Rockies. In true Trout fashion, the ball was clobbered 485 feet. Mike Trout made the fans wait patiently, as he went through the longest home run drought of his career before his 399th big fly but ultimately provided an emotional moment for the Halo faithful. Trout took five years to go from 300 to 400, and this achievement only makes him a more surefire Hall of Fame player, but what could be in store for the rest of Trout's career?

With 400 home runs out of the way for Mike Trout, how likely is #500 for Angels DH?

The first and most important thing to figure out here is how much longer Mike Trout is going to be playing baseball. It seems likely that he will play out the rest of his contract for the Angels, as there is absolutely zero chance he turns down a $37.1 million salary over the next five seasons. And on the Angels side, there is an equally nonexistent chance of them ever keeping Trout out of the lineup. As long as Trout plays, whoever is managing the Angels will be penciling him into the lineup.

So for simplicity, we'll say Trout plays out the entirety of his contract and rides into the sunset. So with five years, how many at-bats could Trout see? He'll finish the season with roughly 130 games played, and that seems like a good estimate going forward. While it's the highest number of games Trout has played since his MVP campaign in 2019, it is fair to assume Trout will be more healthy going forward playing right field or even becoming a full-time designated hitter. So with 130 games a season (and ~550 at-bats per season) over five years, how many home run will Trout hit?

For his career, Trout has hit a home run every 14.88 at-bats. This season, that number sits at a home run every 20.05 at-bats. With his injury and random drought of no home runs, it is fair to assume a number closer to his career average will be the norm going forward. If Trout hits a home run every 16.5 at-bats for the rest of his career, with the numbers laid out above, he'll hit 33 a season, or a total of 165 over the next five seasons. If he does so every 18 at-bats, he'll hit 30 a season for a 150 total. And if he somehow slows down from even the horrid pace he had this year and hits a big fly every 21 at-bats, he'll still manage 26 a season, totaling 130 over the next five seasons.

So while one media outlet does not believe in Trout's chances to join the 500-home run club, the numbers don't count him out if he just maintains his health and avoids the freak injuries that have derailed his 30's. While joining the 600 home run club would require 40 home runs a season for the rest of his contract (therefore being deemed unlikely), 500 home runs is an entirely possible mark for Mike Trout.

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