The Angels made their decision on who will hit leadoff and it's the wrong choice

It's spring training and Angels staffers and fans are getting excited for how the team will be deployed in 2025. The Angels have made many offseason acquisitions, with the most impactful bat added being in the form of Jorge Soler. Given how he was utilized last season as a leadoff hitter and his effectiveness in that role, it was perplexing to see Ron Washington name Taylor Ward as his choice to receive the first at bat for the Angels on Opening Day.

The OC Register's Jeff Fletcher reported on how the Angels' skipper will formulate his lineup: "Washington said Taylor Ward is going to be his leadoff hitter, which is fine with Ward. Ward told reporters a day earlier that’s his preferred spot, because he knows he’ll get a fastball to start the game."

The Angels made their decision on who will hit leadoff and it's the wrong choice

Ward says he is more comfortable as a leadoff hitter and perhaps Soler is more comfortable hitting cleanup so the argument could just end there. Ward has a larger sample size as a leadoff hitter in his career and Soler has a larger sample size as a cleanup man, which definitely needs to be factored in. However, the numbers show that Ward is a better cleanup man and Soler is a better leadoff hitter. They have more bang for your buck in those lineup spots.

Jorge Soler's career as a leadoff hitter (83 games): .258/.368/.494/.861
Taylor Ward's career as a leadoff hitter (152 games): .266/.336/.456/.792

Jorge Soler's career as a cleanup hitter (187 games): .239/.339/.483/.822
Taylor Ward's career as a cleanup hitter (84 games): .293/.366/.520/.886

OK, those sample sizes are a little out of wack. Let's look at their numbers from just last season.

Jorge Soler's 2024 as a leadoff hitter (41 games): .276/.386/.513/.899. 43 hits, 27 BBs, 14 2Bs, 7 HRs
Taylor Ward's 2024 as a leadoff hitter (42 games): .266/.336/.456/.792. 45 hits, 16 BBs, 5 2Bs, 9 HRs

Jorge Soler's 2024 as a cleanup hitter (11 games): .225/.289/.250/.539. 9 hits, 4 BBs, 1 2B, 0 HRs
Taylor Ward's 2024 as a cleanup hitter (16 games): .313/.333/.567/.901. 21 hits, 2 BBs, 2 2Bs, 5 HRs

Those sample sizes are smaller, but it's the most recent we have seen Soler and Ward and it's easier to compare the two given how equal the games played are.

Soler is coming off of a superior offensive 2024 season, as he posted a higher OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, and OPS+ than Ward. Furthermore, Soler just posted an 8.0 offensive fWAR between the Giants and Braves last season, where Ward posted a 5.7 offensive fWAR. It makes more sense to give Soler more at bats than Ward throughout the course of the season.

Not that it matters too much, but it should be noted that the Angels have more invested in Soler than Ward. Soler is making $16 million the next two seasons, whereas Ward is making $7.825 million in his penultimate year of arbitration-eligibility.

Crucially, Soler is better at drawing walks and subsequently seeing more pitches during at bats, which is the most effective thing a leadoff man can do. Ward just swinging first pitch every game does not achieve what leadoff men are tasked with doing. Ward and Soler are both great hitters, so the Angels' lineup should be looking solid either way (especially once Zach Neto returns from his right shoulder surgery). Hopefully Washington reconsiders his choice in the next month though.

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